Background: IAVA conducted a pre-election survey of our membership from October 9-15 with the support of Jason K. Dempsey, PhD, of Columbia University’s Center for Veteran Transition and Integration . There were a total of 1906 veteran respondents.

The overwhelming majority of these respondents, 85%, reported that they either deployed directly to or in support of operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria. Survey respondents were also demographically representative of the post-9/11 veteran population, with 86% of respondents reporting that they were men. The majority, 85%, are between the ages of 35 and 64 years old, reflecting the population that served in the Post-9/11 conflicts.

Key Takeaways Overall (w/additional detail below) :

• Survey respondents represent the military that fought our Post-9/11 Wars
• They are at the peak of their political influence and activity
• They are evenly split in their vote for either Vice President Harris or former President Trump, however the gender gap is significant
• They have relied on voting by mail during their military service and continue to do so as civilians

These findings are unique among national surveys of veterans, as the modal veteran in the United States overall is from the Vietnam era, and therefore more likely to be older, white, and male than the generation that served in Iraq and Afghanistan. Unlike older generations of veterans, the majority of this generation, 55%, do not affiliate with either of the two major parties and just over one in four, 27%, identify as Republican with about one in five, 19%, identifying with the Democratic Party. When ‘leaners’ are included, this shifts to 44% Republican and 32% Democratic, which differs significantly from samples including the older generation of veterans showing splits closer to 63% Republican – 35% Democratic.

Overall, this makes this population much more up for grabs than previous generations of veterans. There is also some evidence of dissatisfaction with the Republican candidate among those who otherwise affiliate with the party. Republicans in this survey are less likely to report intent to vote for their party’s candidate. Ninety-four percent of self-identified Democrats express intent to vote for Harris, while only 78% of Republicans indicate they would vote for Trump if given other options. If the vote is limited to the two major candidates, 96% of Democrats intend to vote for Harris compared to 85% of Republicans. 

Key Takeaways Related to the Upcoming 2024 Election (w/ graphics below) :

• Presidential Candidate Choice:
  • The vote is statistically tied between the two candidates. When ballot options include third party candidates the results are:
    • 43% VP Harris
    • 42% former President Trump
    • 15% Third Party, Other
  • When third party or alternate choices are excluded, reported vote preferences shift slightly in Trump’s favor, 51% – 49%, which remains within the margin of error(which is just over 2%). Only 78% of Reps report planning to vote for Trump, compared to 94% of Dems who indicate they will vote for Harris
  • Republican self-identifiers are also less likely to vote for Trump even if there is no third party choice 85% – 96%

• Gender Gap More Significant Among Women Veterans v. Civilian Women
  • 61% of IAVA women veterans say they’re supporting VP Harris
  • 25% are supporting former President Trump
  • 14% are supporting a third party or other candidate
    
    
• This population has relied on, and continues to use, means of voting other than in-person
  • 69% report voting in an election by mail or absentee ballot while they were serving in the military
  • Only 44% indicate that they plan to vote in-person on Election Day. Another 26% plan to vote in-person during early voting
  • 26% are voting by mail

More Detail on Key Takeaways:

• They represent the military that fought our Post-9/11 Wars
  • Over 90% deployed in support of operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, or Syria
  • All services represented (62% Army, 15% USMC, 12% Navy, 1% USCG, 16% Air Force, ~0.2% Space Force)
  • 67% served primarily on Active Duty, 15% in the Guard and 18% in the Reserves
  • 95% of survey respondents are no longer serving
  • Over half, 51%, served long enough to retire or were medically retired from the military, indicating a deep and extensive knowledge of the military among this population
    
    
• They are at the peak of their political influence and activity
  • Vast majority, 84%, at peak age of social and political influence and activity ○
    • 30% between the ages of 35-44
    • 29% aged 45-54
    • 25% aged 55-64
  • Highly Educated – 66% have a bachelor’s degree or higher
    • Over one in three, 37%, having earned a graduate or professional degree
    • Another 29% have earned at least a bachelor’s degree
  • Politically active population
    • 96% report being registered to vote
    • 95% plan to vote.
      • Almost certain, 80%;
      • Very likely, 6%;
      • And 9% already voted
        
        
• They are politically independent:
  • 55% do NOT identify with one of the two major political parties
  • 27% identify as Republican
  • 19% identify with Democratic Party
  • With ‘leaners’ calculated:
    • 32% Democratic;
    • 44% Republican;
    • 24% Neither or Independent 3 

Graphics: Key Takeaways Related to the Upcoming 2024 Election:

Presidential Candidate Choice 

Gender Gap Among Veterans 

Veterans on Whether America is on the Right/Wrong Track